SCCF LOSOM Iter 3

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### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual

.pull-left[
#### Iteration 3 - Phase 1 Technical Evaluation

*Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation*

*Conservancy of Southwest Florida*

**DRAFT** - September 30, 2021 (Updated: October 12, 2021 )

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.pull-right[
<img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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.footnote[
Paul Julian PhD [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-right:0.2em;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg>](mailto: pjulian@sccf.org) .small[pjulian@sccf.org]

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<a href="https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter3_p1_v2.pdf">
<button class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Download PDF Version</button>
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### Iteration 3 Modeling

* Requested all output data (i.e. `.DSS` files for each alternative) from SFWMD/IMC

#### Phase 1
* Initial sensitivity runs based on Alternative CC & Iteration 3 goals
* Simplify release guidance and reduce dimensionality for optimization
* Test schedule components based on simplified schedule & Iteration 3 goals

#### Notes

Alternative Naming (in USACE presentation 16-17 Sept 2021)
* CC == CCTSP 
* CCsimp4 == simp4 
* 2 versions of CCsimp4 - After simp4s1 (*Phase 1 - Test Flows to St Lucie Estuary*) was run it was renamed as CCsimp4. Therefore in this presentation the second CCsimp4 was renamed to CCsimp4(2).

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name: InitialSense

### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs

* **S1:** Preserve opportunity to send water out of the lake for longer which addresses the goal of increasing flexibility in the lower portions of the schedule.

* **S2:** Regulate CRE releases by using flows at S-79 in all conditions in all zones except in Zone A

* **S3:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating friendly estuary release concepts from 4BC-1

* **S4:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating alternating estuary release concept from 4BC-2

* **S3-4:** Combination of friendly estuary release concepts and alternating estuary release concepts

* **S5:** Reduce stress to CRE by reducing maximum up to flows in Zone D

* **S6:** Combine zones B & C

* **S7:** Address algae by incorporating no releases to the Northern Estuaries in the months June –August except in Zone A

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name: Simp

### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance

* Combine zones, simplify release guidance flowcharts

* Add complexity where it is needed to meet the goals of Iteration 3 optimization

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CC_simp_REGSCH.png" alt="CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule." width="90%" />
CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule.
</div>

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name: Simptest

### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4

* Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1)

* Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW)
  * smp4ZFS - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows south only
  * smp4ZFW - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows west only
  * smp4ZFSW - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows south and west

* Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC)
  * 271DS - S271 sends 200 cfs when S155A 14-day moving average is ≤100 during dry season
  * S71DSZC - Same as S271DS but flood control level is above Zone C line.

* Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77)

---
name: Simptest

### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1

* CCR1 used CCsimp4 as base and incorporated features from smp4ZFSW, 271DS and ZB_S77
.small[
* ZFSW logic - flow south and west to LOWSM line
* 271DS logic - S271 sends 200 cfs when S155A 14-day moving average is ≤100 during dry season
* ZB_S77 - Zone B regulation point for CRE - S77 instead of S79
]

Evaluated:

* Opportunities to reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB)
.small[
* all reg releases in June, July, August set to 0 in Zone D, C and B and lower (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB, respectively)
]

* Opportunities to improve lake health by incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2)
 .small[
* Takes into account El Niño forecast, recovery envelope counts and <11 Ft stage threshold
]

* Opportunities to address water supply performance by modifying operations in lower portions of the schedule (R1WSEN, R1WSMF)
 .small[
* Full flows being ~750 cfs west and up to max south 
* R1WSMF - Lake forecasted to enter into WSM band
* R1WSEN - Cutbacks during ENSO conditions
]

---
name: CRE Recover

### CRE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee with Lake (LOK) and Basin contributions delineated.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_LOKBasin2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
name: CRE Recover

### CRE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to FWO (NA25) during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee specific to Lake, Basin and total counts.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_LOKBasin_FWO2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>6500 cfs) for the Caloosahatchee (all flows; Basin+LOK).]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>6500 cfs) for the Caloosahatchee from Lake Okeechobee.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_LOK_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events

<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_highQ_hist.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---
name: CRE flow

### CRE Discharge

Mean annual total S-79 discharge during the period of simulation
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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table class='cl-5669c2ee'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fe">Alternative</td><td class="cl-5662c2ff">S-79 (x1000 Ac-Ft Y⁻¹)</td><td class="cl-5662c2ff">S-79 (% Diff FWO)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">NA25</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1294</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">0.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1347</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">4.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S1</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1352</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">4.5</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S2</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1319</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S3</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1183</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">-8.5</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S3-4</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1168</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">-9.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S4</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1123</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">-13.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S5</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1342</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">3.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S6</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1333</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">3.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CC_S7</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1318</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CCsimp5</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1258</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">-2.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CCsimp5a</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1244</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">-3.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CCsimp4(1)</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1307</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fb">CCsimp4S1</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">1348</td><td class="cl-5662c2fa">4.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-5662c2fd">CCsimp4(2)</td><td class="cl-5662c2fc">1353</td><td class="cl-5662c2fc">4.6</td></tr></tbody></table></div></template>
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---
name: CREQ

### CRE Discharge

Mean annual total S-77 regulatory (flood protection) discharge during the period of simulation
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---
name: SLE Recover

### SLE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for St Lucie with Lake (LOK) and Basin contributions delineated.]

.right-column[
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---
name: SLE Recover

### SLE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to FWO (NA25) during the simulation period of record for St Lucie specific to Lake, Basin and total counts.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_LOKBasin_FWO2.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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---
name: CRE Extreme

### SLE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>4000 cfs) for the St Lucie (all flows; Basin+LOK).]

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<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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---
name: CRE Extreme

### SLE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>4000 cfs) for the St Lucie from Lake Okeechobee.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_LOK_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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---
name: SLE flow

### SLE Discharge

Mean annual total S-80 discharge during the period of simulation
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class="cl-56d8b0fa">144</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-48.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">CCsimp4ZB77</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">124</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-55.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">CCR1</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">116</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-58.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">R1ABZD</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">117</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-57.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">R1ABZC</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">121</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-56.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">R1ABZB</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">132</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-52.4</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56d8b0fb">CCR1ED</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">141</td><td class="cl-56d8b0fa">-49.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td 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---
name: SLEQ

### SLE Discharge

Mean annual total S-308 regulatory (flood protection) discharge during the period of simulation
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class="cl-56eec20a">8.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CC_S3-4</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">187</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">-0.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CC_S4</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">232</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">23.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CC_S5</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">75</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">-60.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CC_S6</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">90</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">-52.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CC_S7</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">88</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">-52.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CCsimp5</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">138</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">-26.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-56eec20b">CCsimp5a</td><td class="cl-56eec20a">145</td><td 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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-57140ad1{width:36pt;background-color:transparent;vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-57140ad2{width:36pt;background-color:transparent;vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-57140ad3{width:72pt;background-color:transparent;vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table class='cl-571ae3e4'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140ad2">Alternative</td><td class="cl-57140ad3">S-308 Reg Q (x1000 Ac-Ft Y⁻¹)</td><td class="cl-57140ad3">S-308 Reg Q (% Diff FWO)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4ZFS</td><td class="cl-57140ace">74</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-60.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4ZFW</td><td class="cl-57140ace">73</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-61.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4ZFSW</td><td class="cl-57140ace">72</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-61.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4_271DS</td><td class="cl-57140ace">76</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-59.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4_271DSZC</td><td class="cl-57140ace">76</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-59.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCsimp4ZB77</td><td class="cl-57140ace">56</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-70.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCR1</td><td class="cl-57140ace">54</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-71.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">R1ABZD</td><td class="cl-57140ace">54</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-71.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">R1ABZC</td><td class="cl-57140ace">57</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-69.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">R1ABZB</td><td class="cl-57140ace">68</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-63.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCR1ED</td><td class="cl-57140ace">82</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-56.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCR1MD1</td><td class="cl-57140ace">179</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-4.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">CCR1MD2</td><td class="cl-57140ace">99</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-46.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140acf">R1WSEN</td><td class="cl-57140ace">60</td><td class="cl-57140ace">-68.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-57140ad1">R1WSMF</td><td class="cl-57140ad0">54</td><td class="cl-57140ad0">-71.1</td></tr></tbody></table></div></template>
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name: Lake