SCCF LOSOM Iter 3

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### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual

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#### Iteration 3 - Phase 1 Technical Evaluation

*Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation*

*Conservancy of Southwest Florida*

**DRAFT** - October 11, 2021

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<img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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.small[Use cursor keys for navigation, press .red["O"] for a slide .red[O]verview]

<a href="https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter3_p1_v2.pdf">
<button class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Download PDF Version</button>
</a>
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name: LOSOMProcess

### LOSOM Process and Timeline

* LOSOM process started with Scoping Meetings - Feb 2019
* LOSOM Public Workshops – Sept 2019

.small[
*From USACE PDT 09 Aug 2021 meeting presentation*
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name: LOSOMProcess

### Iteration 2 - Model Alternative

.small[
*From SFWMD 08 July 2021 Governing Board meeting presentation*
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name: LOSOMProcess

### Iteration 2 - Model Alternative

.small[
*From USACE PDT 19 July 2021 meeting presentation*
]

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name: AltCC

### Concerns with Alternative CC
* **Water supply & flood control constraints put pressure on the estuaries as the primary outlet for CS&F Project**

* **Alternative CC redistributes harmful regulatory flows from the SLE to CE**

* **Flows to CE are measured at S-77 when conditions are wet** – .small[does not take into account watershed runoff when making release decisions (flows always measured at S-80 in SLE)]

* **Does not allow beneficial dry season flows to CE & Everglades in Zone F**

* **Increases total regulatory flows to CE by 9%**, TN & TP loading increases by 10 & 12%, respectively; reduces regulatory flows to SLE by 62% & reduces TN & TP by 62 & 63%, respectively

* Only decreases lake-triggered damaging events to CE by 16% and **increases stressful flows (2,100-2,600 cfs) by 58%**, while St. Lucie gets 88-91% reduction in lake-triggered RECOVER damaging & stressful flow events

* Caloosahatchee & south are the only outlets in **Zone D** – Lake O recovery periods could increase releases to CE in Zone D

* **Allows back flowing of water & nutrients** into the lake from C-44 & EAA (C-44 backflow ~60%).

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name: reg sch
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name: reg sch
class: middle center

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name: AltCC

### Modifications Needed to Optimize CC

* Measure ***all*** discharges to Caloosahatchee Estuary at the Franklin Lock (S-79)

* Cap regulatory discharges to CE in Zone D to maximum of 2,100 cfs at S-79 - consistent with the ecological performance targets for the Caloosahatchee estuary

* If flows are not capped at 2,100 in Zone D, equitably distribute flows across all outlets —south, east, & west—when conditions are wet

* Allow for beneficial dry season releases to the Caloosahatchee & Everglades in all zones
Reduce total volume of water & nutrient loading to CE below NA25 (targeting stressful & damaging flow ranges)

* Minimize or eliminate back flowing of nutrient-rich water from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) & C-44 basins into the lake

*Some of these concepts in-part have been included the current Iteration 3 - Phase 1 sensitivity runs*

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name: LOSOMProcess

### Next Steps in the LOSOM Process

.small[
*From USACE PDT 25 Aug 2021 meeting presentation*
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name: LOSOMProcess

### Iteration 3 - Modeling

.small[
*From USACE Technical Stakeholder Engagement - 16-17 Sept 2021 meeting presentation*
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name: Iter3
class: middle center

## Iteration 3 Modeling Data Analysis

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name: background

### Iteration 3 - Modeling

* Requested all output data (i.e. `.DSS` files for each alternative) from SFWMD/IMC

#### Phase 1
* Initial sensitivity runs based on Alternative CC & Iteration 3 goals
* Simplify release guidance and reduce dimensionality for optimization
* Test schedule components based on simplified schedule & Iteration 3 goals

#### Notes

Alternative Naming (in USACE presentation 16-17 Sept 2021)
* CC == CCTSP 
* CCsimp4 == simp4 
* 2 versions of CCsimp4 - After simp4s1 (*Phase 1 - Test Flows to St Lucie Estuary*) was run it was renamed as CCsimp4. Therefore in this presentation the second CCsimp4 was renamed to CCsimp4(2).

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name: InitialSense

### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs

* **S1:** Preserve opportunity to send water out of the lake for longer which addresses the goal of increasing flexibility in the lower portions of the schedule.

* **S2:** Regulate CRE releases by using flows at S-79 in all conditions in all zones except in Zone A

* **S3:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating friendly estuary release concepts from 4BC-1

* **S4:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating alternating estuary release concept from 4BC-2

* **S3-4:** Combination of friendly estuary release concepts and alternating estuary release concepts

* **S5:** Reduce stress to CRE by reducing maximum up to flows in Zone D

* **S6:** Combine zones B & C

* **S7:** Address algae by incorporating no releases to the Northern Estuaries in the months June –August except in Zone A

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name: Simp

### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance

* Combine zones, simplify release guidance flowcharts

* Add complexity where it is needed to meet the goals of Iteration 3 optimization

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CC_simp_REGSCH.png" alt="CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule." width="90%" />
CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule.
</div>

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name: Simptest

### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4

* Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1)

* Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW)
  * smp4ZFS - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows south only
  * smp4ZFW - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows west only
  * smp4ZFSW - Flow to LOWSM line (removal of Zone F) for flows south and west

* Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC)
  * 271DS - S271 sends 200 cfs when S155A 14-day moving average is ≤100 during dry season
  * S71DSZC - Same as S271DS but flood control level is above Zone C line.

* Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77)

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name: Simptest

### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1

* CCR1 used CCsimp4 as base and incorporated features from smp4ZFSW, 271DS and ZB_S77
.small[
* ZFSW logic - flow south and west to LOWSM line
* 271DS logic - S271 sends 200 cfs when S155A 14-day moving average is ≤100 during dry season
* ZB_S77 - Zone B regulation point for CRE - S77 instead of S79
]

Evaluated:

* Opportunities to reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB)
.small[
* all reg releases in June, July, August set to 0 in Zone D, C and B and lower (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB, respectively)
]

* Opportunities to improve lake health by incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2)
 .small[
* Takes into account El Niño forecast, recovery envelope counts and <11 Ft stage threshold
]

* Opportunities to address water supply performance by modifying operations in lower portions of the schedule (R1WSEN, R1WSMF)
 .small[
* Full flows being ~750 cfs west and up to max south 
* R1WSMF - Lake forecasted to enter into WSM band
* R1WSEN - Cutbacks during ENSO conditions
]

---
name: CRE Recover

### CRE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee with Lake (LOK) and Basin contributions delineated.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_LOKBasin.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

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name: CRE Recover

### CRE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to FWO (NA25) during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee specific to Lake, Basin and total counts.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_LOKBasin_FWO.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

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name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>6500 cfs) for the Caloosahatchee (all flows; Basin+LOK).]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

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name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>6500 cfs) for the Caloosahatchee from Lake Okeechobee.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_LOK_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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name: CRE Extreme

### CRE Extreme Flow Events

<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_highQ_hist.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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name: CRE flow

### CRE Discharge

Mean annual total S-79 discharge during the period of simulation
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class="cl-a89e9f98">-8.5</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CC_S3-4</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1168</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">-9.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CC_S4</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1123</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">-13.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CC_S5</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1342</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">3.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CC_S6</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1333</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">3.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CC_S7</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1318</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CCsimp5</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1258</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">-2.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CCsimp5a</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1244</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">-3.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CCsimp4(1)</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1307</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f99">CCsimp4S1</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">1348</td><td class="cl-a89e9f98">4.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a89e9f9b">CCsimp4(2)</td><td class="cl-a89e9f9a">1353</td><td class="cl-a89e9f9a">4.6</td></tr></tbody></table></div></template>
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class="cl-a8b76f28">1353</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">4.6</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">CCsimp4ZB77</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1375</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">6.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">CCR1</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1374</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">6.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">R1ABZD</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1369</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">5.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">R1ABZC</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1361</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">5.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">R1ABZB</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1349</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">4.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a8b76f29">CCR1ED</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">1361</td><td class="cl-a8b76f28">5.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td 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---
name: CREQ

### CRE Discharge

Mean annual total S-77 regulatory (flood protection) discharge during the period of simulation
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---
name: SLE Recover

### SLE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for St Lucie with Lake (LOK) and Basin contributions delineated.]

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---
name: SLE Recover

### SLE RECOVER metrics
.left-column[RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to FWO (NA25) during the simulation period of record for St Lucie specific to Lake, Basin and total counts.]

.right-column[
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---
name: CRE Extreme

### SLE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>4000 cfs) for the St Lucie (all flows; Basin+LOK).]

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---
name: CRE Extreme

### SLE Extreme Flow Events
.left-column[Number of events and duration of events of extreme flow events (>4000 cfs) for the St Lucie from Lake Okeechobee.]

.right-column[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_LOK_highQ_events.png" width="74%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
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---
name: SLE flow

### SLE Discharge

Mean annual total S-80 discharge during the period of simulation
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---
name: SLEQ

### SLE Discharge

Mean annual total S-308 regulatory (flood protection) discharge during the period of simulation
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class="cl-a92a2f04">8.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CC_S3-4</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">187</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">-0.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CC_S4</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">232</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">23.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CC_S5</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">75</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">-60.1</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CC_S6</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">90</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">-52.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CC_S7</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">88</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">-52.8</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CCsimp5</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">138</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">-26.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a92a2f05">CCsimp5a</td><td class="cl-a92a2f04">145</td><td 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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table class='cl-a94877fc'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de8">Alternative</td><td class="cl-a9408de9">S-308 Reg Q (x1000 Ac-Ft Y⁻¹)</td><td class="cl-a9408de9">S-308 Reg Q (% Diff FWO)</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4ZFS</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">74</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-60.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4ZFW</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">73</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-61.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4ZFSW</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">72</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-61.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4_271DS</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">76</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-59.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4_271DSZC</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">76</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-59.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCsimp4ZB77</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">56</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-70.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCR1</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">54</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-71.3</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">R1ABZD</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">54</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-71.0</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">R1ABZC</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">57</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-69.7</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">R1ABZB</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">68</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-63.9</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-a9408de5">CCR1ED</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">82</td><td class="cl-a9408de4">-56.2</td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td 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---
name: Lake