layout: true <div class="my-footer"> <span> </span> </div> --- name: title class: left, middle ### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual .pull-left[ #### Iteration 3 - Phase 1 Technical Evaluation *Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation* *Conservancy of Southwest Florida* **DRAFT** - September 21, 2021 <br>(Updated: September 30, 2021 ) ] <!-- this ends up being the title slide since seal = FALSE--> .pull-right[ <img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="./Plots/ConSWFL.jpeg" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .footnote[ Paul Julian PhD<br>[
](mailto: pjulian@sccf.org) .small[pjulian@sccf.org] .small[Use cursor keys for navigation, press .red["O"] for a slide .red[O]verview]
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] --- name: background ### Iteration 3 Modeling #### Phase 1 * Initial sensitivity runs based on Alternative CC & Iteration 3 goals * Simplify release guidance and reduce dimensionality for optimization * Test schedule components based on simplified schedule & Iteration 3 goals #### Notes Alternative Naming * CC == CCTSP * 2 versions of CCsimp4 - After simp4s1 (*Phase 1 - Test Flows to St Lucie Estuary*) was run it was renamed as CCsimp4. Therefore in this presentation the second CCsimp4 was renamed to CCsimp4(2). --- name: InitialSense ### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs * **S1:** Preserve opportunity to send water out of the lake for longer which addresses the goal of increasing flexibility in the lower portions of the schedule. * **S2:** Regulate CRE releases by using flows at S-79 in all conditions in all zones except in Zone A * **S3:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating friendly estuary release concepts from 4BC-1 * **S4:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating alternating estuary release concept from 4BC-2 * **S3-4:** Combination of friendly estuary release concepts and alternating estuary release concepts * **S5:** Reduce stress to CRE by reducing maximum up to flows in Zone D * **S6:** Combine zones B & C * **S7:** Address algae by incorporating no releases to the Northern Estuaries in the months June –August except in Zone A --- name: InitialSense1 ### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM0.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: InitialSense2 ### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM0.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: InitialSense3 ### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM0.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: InitialSense4 ### Phase 1 - Initial Sensitivity Runs <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM0.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simp ### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance * Combine zones, simplify release guidance flowcharts * Add complexity where it is needed to meet the goals of Iteration 3 optimization <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CC_simp_REGSCH.png" alt="CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">CC and 'CCsimp4' simplified regulation schedule.</p> </div> --- name: Simp ### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM1.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simp ### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM1.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simp ### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM1.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simp ### Phase 1 - Simplify Release Guidance <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM1.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 * Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1) * Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW) * Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC) * Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77) --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM2.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM2.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM2.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Flows to St. Lucie Estuary (simp4 and simp4s1) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM2.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM3.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM3.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM3.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Increased flexibility in lower portion of the schedule (smp4ZFS, smp4ZFW, smp4ZFSW) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM3.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM4.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM4.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM4.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Opportunity to send desirable dry season flows to Lake Worth Lagoon (271DS, 271DSZC) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM4.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM5.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM5.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM5.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCsimp4 Zone B regulation point for CRE (S77 vs S79) (ZB_S77) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM5.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 * CCR1 used CCsimp4 as base and incorporated features from smp4ZFSW, 271DS and ZB_S77 Evaluated: * Opportunities to reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB) * Opportunities to improve lake health by incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2) * Opportunities to address water supply performance by modifying operations in lower portions of the schedule (R1WSEN, R1WSMF) --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM6.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM6.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM6.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Reduce algal bloom risk in the northern estuaries (R1ABZD, R1ABZC, R1ABZB) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM6.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM7.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM7.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM7.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Incorporating extreme and moderate recovery operations (CCR1ED, CCR1MD1, CCRMD2) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM7.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Address water supply performance (R1WSEN, R1WSMF) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM8.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Address water supply performance (R1WSEN, R1WSMF) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/CRE_RegQ_PM8.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Address water supply performance (R1WSEN, R1WSMF) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RECOVER_SalEnv_PM8.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom)." width="90%" /> <p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope counts (top), % difference to FWO (middle) and % difference to CC (bottom).</p> </div> --- name: Simptest ### Phase 1 - Test Schedule Components – CCR1 Address water supply performance (R1WSEN, R1WSMF) <div class="figure" style="text-align: center"> <img src="./Plots/Iteration3_TechEval/SLE_RegQ_PM8.png" alt="Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record." width="45%" /> <p class="caption">Average annual regulatory discharges to the St Lucie during the simulation period of record.</p> </div> --- name: sum ### Phase 1 - Inital Summary * The alternative that reduces the number of extreme events (i.e. >6500 cfs at S79) the most is CC_S3 (from initial Sensitivity Runs) relative to [FWO (-41.4%)](#InitialSense1). * **S3:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating friendly estuary release concepts from 4BC-1 <!-- * But performs the worst for [SLE](#InitialSense3) in the stress similar to FWO (-3% difference) . --> * Meanwhile, CC_S4 (from initial Sensitivity Runs) reduces the regulatory discharges to the Caloosahatchee the most relative to the [FWO (-34.8%)](#InitialSense2). * **S4:** Reduce stress to CRE by incorporating alternating estuary release concept from 4BC-2 * Other aspects need to be evaluated for sensitivity run suitability (i.e. increased optimal; reduce low, stress and damaging; Lake ecological envelope performance and; SLE/LWL salinity envelope performance) <!-- * MCDA approach could can be used to screen sensitivity runs. -->