SCCF LOSOM Iter 3

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### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual

.pull-left[
#### Preferred Alternative - LOSOM Listening Session

*Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation*

*Conservancy of Southwest Florida*

**DRAFT** - January 24, 2022

]

.pull-right[
<img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.footnote[
Paul Julian PhD<br>[<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-right:0.2em;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg>](mailto: pjulian@sccf.org) .small[pjulian@sccf.org]

.small[Use cursor keys for navigation, press .red["O"] for a slide .red[O]verview]

<a href="https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/sccf_iter3_LOSOMListen.pdf">
<button class="btn btn-primary btn-sm">Download PDF Version</button>
</a>
]

---
name: intro

--
### The Good

* Estuaries: ⇧ optimal flow & ⇩ stress and damaging flow

* Everglades: ⇧ flow south (via S351 & S354)

### The Bad

* Estuaries: ⇧ extreme flow events

* Lake Okeechobee: ⇧ high stage (17 & 16 Ft NGVD metrics)

* Lake Okeechobee: ⇧ in stage envelope scores (+36% difference to FWO)

### The Ugly

* Proposed 1.5 Ft WSM buffer

---
name: SalEnv1

### Salinity Envelope
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/RECOVER_SalEnv_.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries." width="95%" />
<p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries.</p>
</div>

.small[[FWO Comparison](#SalEnv2)]
---
name: SalEnv3

### Salinity Envelope - Extreme 
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/RECOVER_SalEnv_extreme.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope - Extreme flow category evaluation relative to each respective FWO/No Action Alterantives during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries." width="90%" />
<p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope - Extreme flow category evaluation relative to each respective FWO/No Action Alterantives during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries.</p>
</div>

---
name: extreme

### CRE - Extreme
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/CRE_highQ_events.png" alt="Total (left) and Lake derived (right) extreme discharge events and duration for the Caloosahatchee River Estuary." width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Total (left) and Lake derived (right) extreme discharge events and duration for the Caloosahatchee River Estuary.</p>
</div>

[SLE Extreme Event & Duration](#extreme2)

---
class: extreme

### Extreme event - Recommendation

* While reduced LOK derived stressful and damaging flow events is good minimizing LOK derived extreme events for CRE is recommended.

* Extreme events (regardless of source) can adversely impact estuary and near shore environment.
  * nutrient transport, high color, prolonged freshwater conditions in estuary, etc.

* Large discharges can alter circulation patterns in lower estuary such that Gulf water is drawn into estuary through barrier islands' main inlets which can draw in and concentration *K. brevis* (if present) from Gulf rather than flush it out (Dye et al 2020 & Olabarrieta et al *In Prep*).

.footnote[
.small[
Dye, B., Jose, F., Allahdadi, M.N., 2020. Circulation Dynamics and Seasonal Variability for the Charlotte Harbor Estuary, Southwest Florida Coast. Journal of Coastal Research 36, 276–288. [link](https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-coastal-research/volume-36/issue-2/JCOASTRES-D-19-00071.1/Circulation-Dynamics-and-Seasonal-Variability-for-the-Charlotte-Harbor-Estuary/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-19-00071.1.full)

]
]

---
name: LOK

### Lake Okeechobee 
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/LOK_stg.png" alt="Percent of time LOK stage above 17 Ft, 16 Ft and below 10 Ft NGVD29 during the period of simulation." width="75%" />
<p class="caption">Percent of time LOK stage above 17 Ft, 16 Ft and below 10 Ft NGVD29 during the period of simulation.</p>
</div>

---
name: LOK2

### Lake Okeechobee - Stage Envelope

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/LOK_EnvScore_AllYrs.png" alt="LOK ecological stage envelope total scores (all years)." width="80%" />
<p class="caption">LOK ecological stage envelope total scores (all years).</p>
</div>
.center[
.small[
+36% Diff to FWO Total Penalty; +115% Diff to FWO Upper Penalty; -22% Diff to FWO Lower Penalty 
]
]
---
name: LOK3

### Lake Okeechobee - High Stage Events

<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/LOK_highstg_events.png" alt="Extreme high (left) and moderate high (right) stage events and duration for Lake Okeechobee." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">Extreme high (left) and moderate high (right) stage events and duration for Lake Okeechobee.</p>
</div>

---
name: LakeEval

### Application of Hydrologic Restoration Goals for a Large Subtropical Lake *(In Prep.)*

.pull-left[
Based on methodology of Havens (2002).

Lake stage is a major driver in Lake ecology (see Conceptual Ecological Model).
.small[
* Extreme high lake stage (>5.2 m/17 Ft NGVD29)

* Moderate high lake stage (>4.9 m/16 Ft NGVD29) > 90 days

* Moderate low lake stage (<3.3 m/11 Ft NGVD29) > 90 days

* Extreme low lake stage (<3.0 m/10 Ft NGVD29)

* Spring/SNKI nest period recession
  * March 1 - June 15
  * weekly recession rate between -0.05 and 0.05 Ft/wk (0.02 m/wk) for more than 1/4th of nesting period.

* Events per decade
  
  ]
]

.pull-right[

.red[**Preliminary results:**]

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* PA25 has higher Extreme & Moderate high stage events .small[(see Extreme Event Analysis [slide](#LOK3))] lowering the score.

* LOSOM is not a restoration plan but should take into account ecology of the system.

* Benefits to other parts of the system is balanced on the back of the Lake.

]

.small[
Havens (2002) Development and Application of Hydrologic Restoration Goals for a Large Subtropical Lake. Lake and Reservoir Management 18:285–292. doi: [10.1080/07438140209353934](http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07438140209353934)

]

---
name: WSM

### Low lake stage management

* Last PDT meeting SFWMD stated

.content-box-gray[the state *“is asking for explicit reliance 
on the District to guide operational decisions when Lake stages 
are at or below 1.5 feet above the Water Shortage Management Band.”*]

.pull-left[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/LOSOM.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/LOSOM_buff.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]
---
name: WSM2

### Low lake stage management

* The WSM buffer would effectively create a new management band in the schedule.

* This new concept is not included in the current modeling.

* Represents up to 520 - 591 kAc-Ft of water that could be moved around (or withheld from the estuaries and Everglades).
  * based on [stage-volume relationship](#stage_vol).
  * *Zone D3 to S79<sup>1</sup> (≤ 350 cfs)* a small fraction of total available volume in buffer .small[([How it was modeled](#LOSOMProcess))].

.footnote[
.small[
<sup>1</sup> Release LOK water at S77 such that the LOK will not cause S79 flow to exceed this target; local runoff can still cause flow higher than this value at S79.
]
]

* In current modeling, Lake stage is within the proposed WSM buffer ~22% of time for both preferred alternatives (during period of simulation)
  * Conversely, Lake stage is within Zone D3 ~ 29% of the time for both preferred alternatives (during period of simulation).

* Joint letter on behalf of Friends of the Everglades, Calusa Waterkeeper, Sanibel Captiva Conservation Foundation, Florida Oceanographic and Conservancy of Southwest Florida sent to Col. Booth ([link](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/LOSOMLetters/LOSOM letter Jan 21 2022_FINAL.pdf) to letter).

---
class: inverse

---
name: SalEnv2

### Salinity Envelope
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/RECOVER_SalEnv_FWO.png" alt="RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to each respective FWO/No Action Alterantives during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries." width="100%" />
<p class="caption">RECOVER salinity envelope evaluation relative to each respective FWO/No Action Alterantives during the simulation period of record for Caloosahatchee (top) and St Lucie (bottom) estuaries.</p>
</div>

---
name: extreme2

### SLE - Extreme
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/Iteration3_Final/SLE_highQ_events.png" alt="Total (left) and Lake derived (right) extreme discharge events and duration for the St Lucie Estuary." width="90%" />
<p class="caption">Total (left) and Lake derived (right) extreme discharge events and duration for the St Lucie Estuary.</p>
</div>

---
name: stage_vol

### LOK - Stage - Volume Relationship
<div class="figure" style="text-align: center">
<img src="./Plots/LOK_vol_area.png" alt="Lake Okeechobee Stage-Volume-Area relationship based on 50 Ft Bathymetry." width="80%" />
<p class="caption">Lake Okeechobee Stage-Volume-Area relationship based on 50 Ft Bathymetry.</p>
</div>

---
name: LOSOMProcess

### How it (TSP) was modeled...

.small[
*From USACE PDT 12 Jan 2022 meeting presentation*
]