LOSOM - Iteration 2 Plan Eval
(Pre-Iteration 2 Modeling)

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Site Update 2021-05-17

The Data

The data presented here is a subset of the 27k Pareto runs (file: LOSOM_CPA_PARETO_27k_2020Nov10.xlsx) produced to select potential plans for the LOSOM effort.

The data contains the RSM-BN input parameters, output performance measures, and describes methods used to select the best performing simulation(s). The original worksheet was produced in the fall of 202 by the SFWMD H&H Modeling Section and the Interagency Modeling Center, as directed by the USACE for the LOSOM project.

• Team: Pattie Fulton, Walter Wilcox, Cal Neidrauer, Alaa Ali, Raul Novoa, Randy VanZee, Hal Correa, Sashi Nair, Jenifer Barnes, Maliha Ahmed, Danielle Morancy, Clay Brown, Sandeep Dabral

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Iteration 2 - Balanced Plans

The selected plans to move forward to Iteration 2 modeling are based on either plans within the initial Pareto evaluation (i.e. conceptual plans) or plans evaluated during Iteration 1 modeling with modifications. Therefore the plans of the balanced array with the proposed modifications will make them significantly different than the initial plans presented below. Below are the origins and proposed modifications for each plan within the balanced array.

Plan AA

• Original framework is based on Iteration 1 Plan ESLE (Model Index: 4C-1_3307) with the following modifications:

  • Reduce S308 flows to St. Lucie Estuary,
  • Improve water supply performance,
  • Improve performance for algal blooms in estuaries,
  • Consider C43 high flows and high Lake metrics.

Plan BB

• Original framework is based on Iteration 1 Plan SPLC with the the following modifications:

  • Reduce low and high flows to CRE,
  • Improve flows south,
  • Reduce flows to SLE through S-308,
  • Consider high lake metrics, flows south during dry times, and meeting CRE low flows.

Plan CC

• Original framework is based on Pareto Plan D (Balanced Plan Workshop April 2021) with the the following modifications:

  • Reduce Caloosahatchee Estuary >6500 cfs,
  • Improve St. Lucie Estuary high flow event counts,
  • Improve water supply performance,
  • Consider high lake metrics.

Plan DD

• Original framework is based on Pareto Plan A (Balanced Plan Workshop April 2021) with the the following modifications:

  • Improve Caloosahatchee Estuary optimal flows and high flows,
  • Investigate incremental improvement across all objectives,
  • Consider high lake stage metrics.

Plan EE

• Plan is new and intended for operational flexibility.

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Metrics specific to Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE), Regulatory discharges (to CRE and St Lucie Estuary), Lake Okeechobee Stage envelope and flow south.

Water Supply Specific Metric.

Percent difference relative to FWO (LSM25B) for selected performance measures.

Selected Plans (All PMs) Selected Plans Percent Difference Values

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Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

• Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) presented by USACE PDT to evaluate iteration 1 plans.

• Methodology to synthesize sub-objective performance for each alternative based on key performance metrics identified by sub-teams.

• Used here to evaluate the selected plans and only focuses on Caloosahatchee Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, South Florida Ecology and St Lucie Estuary metrics as presented by USACE (12-April 2021 - PDT workshop).

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MCDA Score for selected plans specific to environmental/ecological considerations of Lake Okeechobee, the estuaries and south Florida.

MCDA Scores

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Performance Measure Definitions

Performance measures used in the analysis above with definitions and abbreviations.

All PM Definitions

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Relative Difference from FWO and ECB

Estuaries

Percent Difference from FWO (LSM25B) for low, optimal and high dicharges for Caloosahatchee River Estuary and St Lucie Estuary (CRE and SLE, respectively).

Percent Difference from ECB (LSMECB) for low, optimal and high dicharges for Caloosahatchee River Estuary and St Lucie Estuary (CRE and SLE, respectively).

Lake Okeechobee

Percent Difference from FWO (LSM25B) for below, within and above the Lake Okeechobee Stage Envelope.

Percent Difference from ECB (LSMECB) for below, within and above the Lake Okeechobee Stage Envelope.

Flow South

Percent Difference from FWO (LSM25B) Discharges south (S351, S354) and STA outflow (STA-2 & STA-3/4).

Percent Difference from ECB (LSMECB) Discharges south (S351, S354) and STA outflow (STA-2 & STA-3/4).

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