Site Update 2021-05-11
The data presented here is a subset of the 27k Pareto runs (file: LOSOM_CPA_PARETO_27k_2020Nov10.xlsx) produced to select potential plans for the LOSOM effort.
The data contains the RSM-BN input parameters, output performance measures, and describes methods used to select the best performing simulation(s). The original worksheet was produced in the fall of 202 by the SFWMD H&H Modeling Section and the Interagency Modeling Center, as directed by the USACE for the LOSOM project.
An array of balanced plans were considered and presented below. For informational purposes the plan used in Iteration 1 modeling was also provided (Model_Index 2C_2193).
Metrics specific to Caloosahatchee River Estuary (CRE), Regulatory discharges (to CRE and St Lucie Estuary), Lake Okeechobee Stage envelope and flow south.
CRE | Lake Okeechobee | |||||||||||||
Pindex | Model_Index | < 457 cfs | 457-750 cfs | 750-2100 cfs | 2100-2600 cfs | 2600-4500 cfs | 4500-6500 cfs | >6500 cfs | MFL Exceed | S77 Reg Flow | S380 Reg Flow | Lower Stg Env Pen | Upper Stg Env Pen | Flow South |
--- | LSMECB | 548 | 280 | 465 | 346 | 355 | 113 | 60 | 36 | 515 | 220 | 17860 | 13525 | 57 |
--- | LSM25B | 77 | 516 | 600 | 292 | 264 | 91 | 51 | 12 | 477 | 238 | 18717 | 12160 | 56 |
8952 | 3_56021 | 76 | 388 | 754 | 244 | 225 | 89 | 50 | 11 | 407 | 219 | 11730 | 27371 | 115 |
7023 | 2C_21932 | 66 | 319 | 902 | 215 | 195 | 65 | 33 | 8 | 319 | 364 | 23147 | 12271 | 100 |
6329 | 1C-1_8086 | 62 | 256 | 891 | 241 | 210 | 83 | 47 | 8 | 420 | 202 | 20190 | 22035 | 169 |
25731 | 4C-3_1310 | 76 | 501 | 633 | 254 | 252 | 85 | 47 | 10 | 436 | 187 | 18450 | 16473 | 151 |
26803 | 4C-3_4418 | 62 | 422 | 723 | 282 | 241 | 80 | 40 | 8 | 462 | 156 | 22467 | 17036 | 159 |
26597 | 4C-3_3822 | 76 | 327 | 805 | 244 | 236 | 89 | 45 | 11 | 408 | 150 | 11570 | 27202 | 175 |
26516 | 4C-3_3593 | 54 | 452 | 699 | 258 | 263 | 86 | 49 | 6 | 460 | 142 | 16623 | 21009 | 160 |
8532 | 3_3823 | 67 | 288 | 859 | 214 | 208 | 83 | 50 | 9 | 406 | 204 | 16358 | 21930 | 167 |
1Selected balanced plan for iteration 2 modeling | ||||||||||||||
2Plan selected for iteration 1 modeling (ECRE) |
Water Supply Specific Metric.
Water Supply | ||||||
Pindex | Model_Index | SEM BCYP not met | SEM BR not met | LOSA Cutback | LOSA 4in1 | LOSA Rec |
--- | LSMECB | 2.52 | 4.58 | 26.04 | 8.17 | 25 |
--- | LSM25B | 2.55 | 4.63 | 26.02 | 8.28 | 25 |
8952 | 3_56021 | 1.79 | 2.65 | 16.87 | 4.76 | 12 |
7023 | 2C_21932 | 3.26 | 6.28 | 27.91 | 11.41 | 33 |
6329 | 1C-1_8086 | 3.00 | 5.48 | 26.06 | 10.08 | 31 |
25731 | 4C-3_1310 | 2.48 | 4.49 | 25.92 | 8.09 | 26 |
26803 | 4C-3_4418 | 3.17 | 5.98 | 28.96 | 10.79 | 31 |
26597 | 4C-3_3822 | 1.85 | 2.70 | 17.40 | 4.95 | 14 |
26516 | 4C-3_3593 | 2.50 | 4.36 | 23.60 | 8.01 | 27 |
8532 | 3_3823 | 2.40 | 4.15 | 23.44 | 7.59 | 26 |
1Selected balanced plan for iteration 2 modeling | ||||||
2Plan selected for iteration 1 modeling (ECRE) |
Percent difference relative to FWO (LSM25B) for selected performance measures.
Pindex | Model_Index | PM48 | PM49 | PM51 | PM14 | PM52 | PM53 | PM54 | PM55 | PM56 | PM61 | PM12 | PM13 | PM46 | PM6 | PM7 | PM8 | PM9 | PM10 |
--- | LSMECB | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
--- | LSM25B | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
8952 | 3_56021 | -1.30 | -24.81 | 25.67 | -16.44 | -14.77 | -2.20 | -1.96 | -8.33 | -14.80 | -8.05 | -37.33 | 125.09 | 104.30 | -29.80 | -42.76 | -35.17 | -42.51 | -52.00 |
7023 | 2C_21932 | -14.29 | -38.18 | 50.33 | -26.37 | -26.14 | -28.57 | -35.29 | -33.33 | -33.07 | 52.67 | 23.67 | 0.91 | 77.30 | 27.84 | 35.64 | 7.26 | 37.80 | 32.00 |
6329 | 1C-1_8086 | -19.48 | -50.39 | 48.50 | -17.47 | -20.45 | -8.79 | -7.84 | -33.33 | -12.01 | -15.08 | 7.87 | 81.21 | 199.36 | 17.65 | 18.36 | 0.15 | 21.74 | 24.00 |
25731 | 4C-3_1310 | -1.30 | -2.91 | 5.50 | -13.01 | -4.55 | -6.59 | -7.84 | -16.67 | -8.60 | -21.46 | -1.43 | 35.47 | 166.57 | -2.75 | -3.02 | -0.38 | -2.29 | 4.00 |
26803 | 4C-3_4418 | -19.48 | -18.22 | 20.50 | -3.42 | -8.71 | -12.09 | -21.57 | -33.33 | -3.13 | -34.71 | 20.04 | 40.10 | 182.15 | 24.31 | 29.16 | 11.30 | 30.31 | 24.00 |
26597 | 4C-3_3822 | -1.30 | -36.63 | 34.17 | -16.44 | -10.61 | -2.20 | -11.76 | -8.33 | -14.52 | -37.12 | -38.18 | 123.70 | 209.49 | -27.45 | -41.68 | -33.13 | -40.22 | -44.00 |
26516 | 4C-3_3593 | -29.87 | -12.40 | 16.50 | -11.64 | -0.38 | -5.49 | -3.92 | -50.00 | -3.56 | -40.50 | -11.19 | 72.77 | 182.81 | -1.96 | -5.83 | -9.30 | -3.26 | 8.00 |
8532 | 3_3823 | -12.99 | -44.19 | 43.17 | -26.71 | -21.21 | -8.79 | -1.96 | -25.00 | -14.89 | -14.62 | -12.60 | 80.35 | 195.66 | -5.88 | -10.37 | -9.92 | -8.33 | 4.00 |
1Selected balanced plan for iteration 2 modeling | |||||||||||||||||||
2Plan selected for iteration 1 modeling (ECRE) |
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) presented by USACE PDT to evaluate iteration 1 plans.
Methodology to synthesize sub-objective performance for each alternative based on key performance metrics identified by sub-teams.
Used here to evaluate the selected plans and only focuses on Caloosahatchee Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, South Florida Ecology and St Lucie Estuary metrics as presented by USACE (12-April 2021 - PDT workshop).
Lake Okeechobee Key Metric. | ||
PM | Metric | Weight |
13 | Upper Lake Stage penalties | 30 |
45 | Lake MFL Exccedances | 30 |
43 | % of time lake stage >17Ft | 30 |
39 | % within lake stage envelope | 10 |
Caloosahatchee Estuary Metric. | ||
PM | Metric | Weight |
48 | ≤ 457 cfs | 25 |
54 | ≥ 6500 cfs | 25 |
51 | RECOVER Optimal Events | 20 |
53 | 4500 - 6500 cfs | 20 |
52 | 2600 - 4500 cfs | 10 |
St Lucie Estuary Metric. | ||
PM | Metric | Weight |
61 | S308 Flows | 50 |
60 | Damaging Flow Event counts triggered from LOK | 30 |
17 | High Flow Event counts triggered from LOK | 20 |
South Florida Metric. | ||
PM | Metric | Weight |
46 1 | Average annual flow south | 50 |
47 | Average annual STA 2 and 3/4 outflow | 50 |
1 Slighly different than originall presented by USACE. Wet and Dry season discharges are not seggregated for flows south in Pareto evaluation. |
MCDA Score for selected plans specific to environmental/ecological considerations of Lake Okeechobee, the estuaries and south Florida.
MCDA Score | |||||
Pindex | Model_Index | Lake Okeechobee | Caloosahatchee | St Lucie | South Florida |
8952 | 3_56021 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
7023 | 2C_21932 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
6329 | 1C-1_8086 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
25731 | 4C-3_1310 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
26803 | 4C-3_4418 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
26597 | 4C-3_3822 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
26516 | 4C-3_3593 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
8532 | 3_3823 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
1Selected balanced plan for iteration 2 modeling | |||||
2Plan selected for iteration 1 modeling (ECRE) |
Performance measures used in this analysis with definitions and abbreviations.
PM | Abbreviation | Units | Description |
PM6 | SEM_BCYP_notmet | Percent | STOF - Big Cypress Reservation percentage of demand not met. |
PM7 | SEM_BR_notmet | Percent | STOF - Brighton Reservation percentage of demand not met. |
PM8 | LOSA_cutback_wt_avg | Percent | Weighted average of LOSA demand cutback volumes to supplemental demand volumes (1973-1974, 1981-1982, 2001, 2007-2008, 2011) . |
PM9 | LOSA_4in1_dmd_notmet_EAA_non-EAA | Percent | Weighted average of LOSA supplemental irrigation demand not met for EAA and non-EAA areas (298 Districts, S4, L8, C43, N Lakeshore, NE Lakeshore and Lower Istokpoga. |
PM10 | LOSA_REC_duration | Count | The number of months months when significant cutbacks in water use due to declared water shortages are being simulated. |
PM12 | LOK_stgenv_lower_penalty | Score | Count of weighted exceedances (penalty) below LOK stage envelope. Criteria based on previous year's stage to trigger shifting envelopes on 1-Jan each year. |
PM13 | LOK_stgenv_upper_penalty | Score | Count of weighted exceedances (penalty) above LOK stage envelope. Criteria based on previous year's stage to trigger shifting envelopes on 1-Jan each year. |
PM14 | CAE_High | Count | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 2100 cfs and < 2600 cfs. |
PM46 | LOK_flow_south | k-ac-ft/yr | Average annual flow for POR (S351, S354). |
PM48 | CAE_<457 | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average < 457 cfs. |
PM49 | CAE_457_750 | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 457 and < 750 cfs. |
PM51 | CAE_Optimal | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 750 and < 2100 cfs. |
PM52 | CAE_2600_4500 | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 2600 and < 4500 cfs. |
PM53 | CAE_4500_6500 | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 4500 and < 6500 cfs. |
PM54 | CAE_>6500 | Counts | Number of times 14-day moving average >= 6500 cfs. |
PM55 | CAE_MFL_Exceedances | Counts | Numer of exceedances Caloosahatchee MFL criteria during simulated POR. Exceedance Criteria: 30 day average flow below MFL criteria is less than 457 (cfs). |
PM56 | S77_reg_flow | k-ac-ft/yr | Average annual flow for S77 regulatory flow discharge. |
PM61 | S308_reg_flow | k-ac-ft/yr | Average annual flow for S308 regulatory flow discharge. |