layout: true <div class="my-footer"> <span> </span> </div> --- name: title class: left, middle ### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual .pull-left[ #### Iteration 2 Modeling - <br>Evaluation Technical workshop<br>Climate perspective *Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation* *Conservancy of Southwest Florida* June 29, 2021 <br>(Updated: June 30, 2021 ) ] <!-- this ends up being the title slide since seal = FALSE--> .pull-right[ <img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> <img src="./Plots/ConSWFL.jpeg" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .footnote[ Paul Julian PhD [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-right:0.2em;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg>](mailto: pjulian@sccf.org) ] --- name: climate <img src="./Plots/Kaplan_AMO.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Monthly observed Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index from 1856 to 2021 for the northern Atlantic (Enfield et al. 2001).] ] * Recent debate on AMO index suggest decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise (see Steinman et al 2015; Mann et al 2020; Mann et al 2021). * Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background. * Still an indicator of warm/cool phase shift. ??? Mann et al 2021 indicates that apparent AMO like oscillatory variability during the past millennium is driven exclusively by volcanic radiative forcing because existence of externally forced multidecadal oscillations that are a consequence of competing anthropogenic forcings during the historical era and the coincidental multidecadal pacing of explosive tropical volcanic activity in past centuries no compelling evidence for a purely internal multidecadal AMO-like cycle. --- name: High/Low ### Extreme High/Low <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LOperDays.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .center[Percent of time where stages ≤ 10 or ≥ 17 Ft NGVD29 during the period of simulation (1965 - 2016).] --- name: High/Low2 ### Extreme High/Low <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LO_AMO_perDays.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .center[Percent of time where stages ≤ 10 or ≥ 17 Ft NGVD29 during the period of simulation (1965 - 2016) broken down into dry (1965-1994) and wet (1995-2016) phases.] --- name: Lake_StageCat <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeH_AMO_cat.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Percent of time within each respective stage elevation category for Lake Okeechobee comparing dry/cold (1965 – 1994) and wet/warm (1995 – 2016) AMO phase for each alternative for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016; 18993 days).] ] --- name: StgEnv1 ### Normal/Recovery Envelope <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeO_Env.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .center[Transition between normal and recovery stage envelopes for each alternative during the entire simulation period.] .small[ .pull-left[ **Shift from normal to recovery:** - Stages >17 Ft any time of the year *or* - Stage in the June1 – July31 window is ≤ 13.0 ft for < 30 days ] .pull-right[ **Shift from recovery to normal:** - Stage ≤16.0 ft from Aug1 – Dec31 *and* - Stage during May1 - Aug1 falls below 11.5 Ft for 60 or more days *or* - Stage during Apr15 - Sep15 falls below 12.0 Ft for 90 or more days ] ] --- name: StageEnvelope ### Lake Stage Envelope <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeO_Env_AMO.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Percent of time within normal and recovery stage envelope during dry (1965-1994) and wet (1995-2016) phases for each alternative across the simulation period of record (52-years).] ] --- name: LakeSDC ### Lake Stage Duration Curves <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LO_StageDuration_AMO.png" width="82%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Stage duration curves for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016) within each phase for each alternative compared to FWO (NA25) and ECB (ECBr).] ] -- <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LO_StageDuration_Diff_AMO.png" width="82%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Difference in stage duration curves (SDC;Cool - Wet) between climate phases for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016) for each alternative includes FWO and ECB.] ] --- name: CRE .left-column[ <br> <br> Daily time-series of S79 discharges for each alternative with mean discharge for dry/cool (1965 – 1994) and wet/warm (1995 – 2016) AMO phase depicted (red and blue, respectively). .small[ * More extreme and longer duration discharges during warm/wet phase. ] ] .right-column[ <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/S79Q_AMO_TS.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- name: CRE_bxp <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/S79Q_AMO_bxp.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Boxplot of daily discharge comparing dry/cold (1965 – 1994) and wet/warm (1995 – 2016) AMO phase for each alternative for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016).] ] --- name: CRE_QCat <img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/S79Q_AMO_cat_total.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> .small[ .center[Percent of time within each respective flow category for S-79 comparing dry/cold (1965 – 1994) and wet/warm (1995 – 2016) AMO phase for each alternative for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016; 18993 days).] ] --- name: conclusion <img src="./Plots/tenor.gif" width="50%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> -- * During the simulation period of record the climate shifts from a dry/cool phase to a wet/warm phase. -- * Lake stage extremes are exacerbated in the wet/warm phase * AA and EEs extreme high (>17 ft NGVD29) are much more dramatic in the wet/warm phase. -- * For all plans we are in a recovery lake envelope more frequently in the wet/warm phase. -- * While S79/CRE stress events are less frequent in the warm/wet phase, extreme high (>6500 cfs) events increase for all plans. -- * **It is recommended to consider climate shifts in the simulation period of record and what that means for the systems within the project area. ** --- name: Acknowledgments ### Acknowledgments <img src="https://www.sfwmd.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sfwmd-seal-hq.png" width="8%" /> South Florida Water Management District ([DBHYDRO](https://www.sfwmd.gov/science-data/dbhydro)) <img src="https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerStandardsGraphics/gs-03.gif" width="8%" /> US Army Corps of Engineers ([USACE LOSOM](https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/LOSOM/)) * Interagency Modeling Center [HTML Slide deck](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_TechWorkshopClimate.html) | [PDF Slide deck](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_TechWorkshopClimate.pdf) | [RMarkdown Source](https://github.com/SwampThingPaul/LOSOM_ModelEval) &copy; Julian (2021) [](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) [Analysis Script](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/SwampThingPaul/LOSOM_ModelEval/main/src/iter2_eval_climate.R) [Additional Supplemental Slides](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_LOSOM); [Workshop #1 Presentation](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_TechWorkshop) .pull-left[ <img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="35%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] .pull-right[ <img src="./Plots/ConSWFL.jpeg" width="45%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /> ] --- name: References ### References * Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 28:2077–2080. doi: 10.1029/2000GL012745 * Mann ME, Steinman BA, Brouillette DJ, Miller SK (2021) Multidecadal climate oscillations during the past millennium driven by volcanic forcing. Science 371:1014–1019. doi: 10.1126/science.abc5810 * Mann ME, Steinman BA, Miller SK (2020) Absence of internal multidecadal and interdecadal oscillations in climate model simulations. Nature Communications 11:49. doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13823-w * Steinman BA, Mann ME, Miller SK (2015) Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. 347:5.