SCCF LOSOM iter2

layout: true

---
name: title
class: left, middle

### Lake Okeechobee System Operating Manual

.pull-left[
#### Iteration 2 Modeling - <br>Evaluation Technical workshop

*Sanibel-Captiva Conservation Foundation*

*Conservancy of Southwest Florida*

June 21, 2021

]

.pull-right[
<img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

]

.footnote[
Paul Julian PhD [<svg aria-hidden="true" role="img" viewBox="0 0 512 512" style="height:1em;width:1em;vertical-align:-0.125em;margin-right:0.2em;font-size:inherit;fill:currentColor;overflow:visible;position:relative;"><path d="M502.3 190.8c3.9-3.1 9.7-.2 9.7 4.7V400c0 26.5-21.5 48-48 48H48c-26.5 0-48-21.5-48-48V195.6c0-5 5.7-7.8 9.7-4.7 22.4 17.4 52.1 39.5 154.1 113.6 21.1 15.4 56.7 47.8 92.2 47.6 35.7.3 72-32.8 92.3-47.6 102-74.1 131.6-96.3 154-113.7zM256 320c23.2.4 56.6-29.2 73.4-41.4 132.7-96.3 142.8-104.7 173.4-128.7 5.8-4.5 9.2-11.5 9.2-18.9v-19c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v19c0 7.4 3.4 14.3 9.2 18.9 30.6 23.9 40.7 32.4 173.4 128.7 16.8 12.2 50.2 41.8 73.4 41.4z"/></svg>](mailto: pjulian@sccf.org)
]

---
name: alternatives

### Iteration 2 - Model runs

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style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">NA25</span><span class="cl-2551f4fe"> 2 </span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">LOSOM No Action 2025 (FWO)</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">AA</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">ESLE Framework. Enhances SLE ecology.</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">BB</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">SPLC Framework. Improve water supply to pre-LORS08</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">CC</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">Pareto Plan D Framework. Enhances CRE ecology and improves water supply</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">DD</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">Pareto Plan A Framework. Incremental improvement over LORS.</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ea"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">EE1</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242eb"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">Stage Target Operation Framework. Improve water supply performance by reducing flows south.</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-255242ec"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">EE2</span></p></td><td class="cl-255242ed"><p class="cl-2551f501"><span class="cl-2551f4fd">Stage Target Operations Framework. Reduce flows to SLE by reducing Zone B release rate.</span></p></td></tr></tbody><tfoot><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td  colspan="2"class="cl-255242ee"><p class="cl-2551f502"><span class="cl-2551f4ff"> 1 </span><span class="cl-2551f500">Existing Conditions Baseline 2019, revised (replaces LSMECB)</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td  colspan="2"class="cl-255242ee"><p class="cl-2551f502"><span class="cl-2551f4ff"> 2 </span><span class="cl-2551f500">No action Condition 2025 (replaces LSM25B)</span></p></td></tr></tfoot></table></div></template>
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.small[
#### Refinements (from Modeling Subteam)
* Improved eastern RSMBN domain (Grassy Waters and ITID)

* Refine C-44 basin and reservoir modeling to maintain reservoir benefits to C-44 basin

* Updated water supply for STOF Brighton Reservation
]

---
name: shortcuts
### Table of Contents
.pull-left[
* Lake Okeechobee 
  * [Stage Duration Curves](#LakeSDC)
  * [High/Low Lake Stages](#HiLoStg)
  * [Stage Envelope](#StgEnv1)
  * [Overall FWO Comparison](#StgEnv1)
  * [Above, Within and Below Comparison](#StgEnv3)

* Caloosahatchee River Estuary
  * [Flow Categories](#CREFlowCat)
  * [RECOVER Flow Categories](#CRE_tern)
  * [Basin vs Lake](#source)
  * [CRE MFL](#CREMFL)
]

.pull-right[

* St Lucie Estuary
  * [Flow Categories](#SLEFlowCat)
  * [RECOVER Flow Categories](#SLE_tern)

* [Estuary Flow Category Comparison](#estuarycompare)

* Flows South
  * [Annual Discharge comparison](#EAAQ), [Relative to FWO](#EAAQ_FWO)
  * [Wet Season discharges](#EAAWet), [Relative to FWO](#EAAWet_FWO)

* [Principal Component Analysis](#PCA1)

]

---
name: LakeSDC

### Lake Stage Duration Curves

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LO_StageDuration2.png" width="82%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.small[
.center[Stage duration curves for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016) for each alternative compared to FWO (NA25) and ECB (ECBr).]
]

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LO_StageDuration_Diff.png" width="82%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.small[
.center[Difference in stage duration curves (SDC) for the entire period of simulation (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016) for each alternative compared to FWO (NA25).]
]
---
name: HiLoStg

### High/Low Stages

.center[Total number of days during the simulation period where (Top) stage elevations were ≤ 11 or > 16 Ft NGVD29 and (Bottom) ≤ 10 or ≥ 17 Ft NGVD29.]

---
name: StgEnv1

### Normal/Recovery Envelope

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeO_Env.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[Transition between normal and recovery stage envelopes for each alternative during the entire simulation period.]
.small[
.pull-left[
**Shift from normal to recovery:**
- Stages >17 Ft any time of the year
*or*
- Stage in the June1 – July31 window is ≤ 13.0 ft for < 30 days

]

.pull-right[
**Shift from recovery to normal:**
- Stage ≤16.0 ft from Aug1 – Dec31
*and* 
- Stage during May1 - Aug1 falls below 11.5 Ft for 60 or more days
*or*
- Stage during Apr15 - Sep15 falls below 12.0 Ft for 90 or more days

]

---
name: StgEnv2

### Lake Envelope Score Summary
.pull-left[
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeO_EnvScore_all_sum.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
Percent difference of average annual score relative to the FWO (NA25) alternative over the entire simulation period (FLWY 1966-2016).

* On average, stage enevelope score for alt **DD** is 9.6% lower than FWO.

* On average, stage enevelope score for alt **EE1** is 26.4% higher than FWO.

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class="cl-2577233b">687</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">16.5</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-257770e2"><p class="cl-257749f0"><span class="cl-2577233b">CC</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">674</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">14.3</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-257770e2"><p class="cl-257749f0"><span class="cl-2577233b">DD</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">533</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">-9.6</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-257770e2"><p class="cl-257749f0"><span class="cl-2577233b">EE1</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">745</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e3"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">26.4</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-257770e4"><p class="cl-257749f0"><span class="cl-2577233b">EE2</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e5"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">701</span></p></td><td class="cl-257770e5"><p class="cl-257749f1"><span class="cl-2577233b">18.9</span></p></td></tr></tbody></table></div></template>
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---
name: StgEnv3

### Lake Okeechobee Stage Envelope
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/LakeO_EnvScore_BWA_FWO2.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

<center>Average percent difference of relative to the FWO (NA25) alternative over the entire simulation period (FLWY 1966-2016) comparing percent below, within and above the Lake stage envelope (including transitions between normal and recovery).

---
name: CREFlowCat

### CRE Flow Categories

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/CRE_iter2_freq_bxp.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[Boxplot representing the frequency of low (<750 cfs), optimum (750 - 2100 cfs) and damaging (>2600 cfs) flow events during the simulation period across alternatives. Dashed line represents the FWO median and green dashed line and point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.]

---
name: CRE_tern
class: middle

.center[Frequency of optimum, damaging and low flow events for the CRE during the simulation period of record (FLWY 1966 - 2016). Each point represents a seperate water year, 95% and 50% confidence intervals identified by blue dashed lines]

* The data is normalized to show variables relative to one another.

.small[[Ternary 101](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ternary_plot)]

---
name: source

### Source of Discharges
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/S79_PercentBasinQ_bxp.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Boxplot representing the percent of S-79 discharges originating from the C-43 Basin (top) and Lake Okeechobee (bottom). Dashed line represents the FWO median and green point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.
]

---
name: CREMFL

### Caloosahatchee MFL

.center[
Average percent difference of MFL exceedances compared to FWO (NA25) during the simulation period of record (Jan 1, 1965 - Dec 31, 2016).
]

---
name: SLEFlowCat

### SLE Flow Categories

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/SLE_iter2_freq_bxp.png" width="70%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Boxplot representing the frequency of low (<150 cfs), optimum (150 - 1400 cfs) and damaging (>1700 cfs) flow events during the simulation period across alternatives. Dashed line represents the FWO median and green point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.
]

---
name: SLE_tern
class: middle

.center[Frequency of optimum, damaging and low flow events for the SLE during the simulation period of record (FLWY 1966 - 2016). Each point represents a seperate water year, 95% and 50% confidence intervals identified by blue dashed lines]

---
name: estuarycompare

### FWO Discharge Comparison
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/Estuary_FWOCompare.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Average percent difference from FWO (NA25) for low, optimal and damaging discharges for Caloosahatchee River Estuary and St Lucie Estuary (CRE and SLE, respectively).
]

* Compared annual average number of events over the FLWY 1966 - 2016 simulation period

---
name: EAAQ

### EAA (S-354 + S-351)
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/EAA_discharge_bxp2.png" width="80%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Boxplot representing the annual discharge volume from Lake Okeechobee to the EAA via S-354 and S-351 during the simulation period across alternatives. Dashed line represents the FWO median and green point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.
]

---
name: EAAQ_FWO

### FWO Discharge Comparison
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/FlowSouth_FWOCompare.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Percent Difference from FWO (NA25) for total discharges south (S-351 and S-354).
]

* Compared annual average number of events over the FLWY 1966 - 2016 simulation period

---
name: EAAWet

### EAA (S-354 + S-351) Wet Season
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/FlowSouth_wetseason.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Wet Season (June - October) discharge to the EAA via S-354 and S-351 during the simulation period across alternatives. Dashed line represents the FWO median and green point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.
]

---
name: EAAWet_FWO

### FWO Discharge Comparison
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/FlowSouth_wet_FWOCompare.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Average percent difference from FWO (NA25) for wet season discharges south (S-351 and S-354) during the simulation period of record.
]

---
name: PCA1

### Principal Component Analysis

.pull-left[
**Parameters**

* Q<sub>S79</sub>, Q<sub>S80</sub>, Q<sub>S77</sub>, Q<sub>S308</sub> and Q<sub>South</sub>: Total annual discharge.

* S79 / S80 <sub>Low, Opt, Dam</sub>: Frequency of low, optimum and damaging events at S79 / S80 (based on 14-day moving average).

* Stg <11Ft: Frequency of daily stage < 11 Ft.

* Stg >16Ft: Frequency of daily stage < 16 Ft.

* % Within: Percentage of time within the Lake stage envelope.

]

.pull-right[
**PCA Data Suitability**

* Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Statistics (Measure of Sampling Adequacy)
  * KMO-Criterion: 0.79

* Bartlett's Test Of Sphericity
 * χ² = 10034.6; DF = 91; ρ <0.01
 
* [PCA Scree](#PCAScree) Plot
 
]

---
name: PCA2

### Principal Component Analysis

<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/Iter2_PCA_Alts.png" width="85%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.small[
* Occurrence of optimum flow events, flows south and % within envelope is positively loaded w/ CC and EE plans
* Stg >16 Ft correlated with total discharge and damaging flow events
* Stg <11 Ft correlated with low flow event
* Despite having higher Flows south AA is pulled to the bottom left (driven by higher freq stag <11 Ft).
]

---
name: PCA3

### Principal Component Analysis

* *Removed the individual points to better see the ordination ellipse.*

---

### Summary

Overall, a plan that provides a balanced approach across the system to maintain ecological integrity and function is needed.

* All plans, *except DD*, keep lake stages higher relative to FWO.
  * AA & EEs have the highest number of days in extreme [high and low stages](#HiLoStg).

* CC and EEs provide the greatest number of optimum flow events for [CRE](#CREFlowCat).

* AA, CC and EEs provide the greatest number of low flow events for [SLE](#SLEFlowCat).
  * EE1 has highest frequency of damaging flow events for SLE.

* AA followed by CC and EEs provide the highest discharge volume south ([total annual](#EAAQ), [wet season](#EAAWet)) and late dry season ([*not shown*](#EAALateDry)).

* CC and EE plans are associated with optimal estuary flow events, flow south and % w/in the stage envelope based on [principal component analysis](#PCA2).

* **PDT Question**: How much variability could we expect for EE plan(s) due to operational flexibility?

???
**Lake Stage** EEs result in higher lake stage

**Lake Envelope** CC (and to some degree BB) provide a more balanced lake stage (relative to envelope) but not at the expense of other parts of the system

**Flows south** CC and EEs provide the highest discharge volume south but not at the expense of the Lake or Estuaries.

---
name: Acknowledgments

### Acknowledgments

<img src="https://www.sfwmd.gov/sites/default/files/documents/sfwmd-seal-hq.png" width="8%" />
South Florida Water Management District ([DBHYDRO](https://www.sfwmd.gov/science-data/dbhydro))

<img src="https://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerStandardsGraphics/gs-03.gif" width="8%" />
US Army Corps of Engineers ([USACE LOSOM](https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/LOSOM/))

* Interagency Modeling Center

[HTML Slide deck](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_TechWorkshop) | [PDF Slide deck](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_TechWorkshop.pdf) | [RMarkdown Source](https://github.com/SwampThingPaul/LOSOM_ModelEval) &copy; Julian (2021) [![Creative Commons License](https://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png)](http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

[Additional Supplemental Slides](https://sccf-tech.github.io/slides/LOSOM/SCCF_iter2_LOSOM)

.pull-left[
<img src="./Plots/SCCF Logo knockout_c.png" width="35%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="./Plots/ConSWFL.jpeg" width="45%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
]

---
class: inverse

---
name: PCAScree

### PCA Scree plot

[Principal Component Analysis](#PCA2)

---
name: EAALateDry

### EAA (S-354 + S-351) Late Dry Season
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/FlowSouth_LateDryseason.png" width="90%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Late Dry Season (Mar - May) discharge to the EAA via S-354 and S-351 during the simulation period across alternatives. Dashed line represents the FWO median and green point in boxplot indicates period of simulation mean.
]

---
name: EAALateDry_FWO

### FWO Discharge Comparison Late Dry Season
<img src="./Plots/Iteration_2/FlowSouth_LateDry_FWOCompare.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
.center[
Average percent difference from FWO (NA25) for late dry season (Mar - May) discharges south (S-351 and S-354) during the simulation period of record.
]

---
name: eval-methods
class: middle

#### Lake Okeechobee

* Evaluate lake stage consistent with RECOVER - Lake Okeechobee Stage Performance Measure.
  * PM documentation - [link](https://usace.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p16021coll7/id/14096)
  * R-package - [link](https://github.com/SwampThingPaul/LORECOVER)

#### Estuaries

* Evaluate estuary discharges consistent with RECOVER thresholds
  * PM documentation - [link](https://usace.contentdm.oclc.org/utils/getfile/collection/p16021coll7/id/14793)

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1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}.cl-25ce3e65{width:108pt;background-color:transparent;vertical-align: middle;border-bottom: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-top: 2pt solid rgba(102, 102, 102, 1.00);border-left: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);border-right: 0 solid rgba(0, 0, 0, 1.00);margin-bottom:0;margin-top:0;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;}</style><table class='cl-25d86226'><thead><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-25ce3e64"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07a">Estuary</span><span class="cl-25cdf07b"> </span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e65"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07a">Optimum</span><span class="cl-25cdf07b"> </span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e65"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07a">Stress</span><span class="cl-25cdf07b"> </span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e64"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07a">Damaging</span><span class="cl-25cdf07b"> </span></p></td></tr></thead><tbody><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-25ce3e5e"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">St. Lucie</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e5f"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">150 - 1400 cfs</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e5f"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">1400 - 1700 cfs</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e5e"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">&gt;1700 cfs</span></p></td></tr><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td class="cl-25ce3e60"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">Caloosahatchee</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e61"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">750 - 2100 cfs</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e61"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">2100 - 2600 cfs</span></p></td><td class="cl-25ce3e60"><p class="cl-25ce1776"><span class="cl-25cdf07c">&gt;2600 cfs</span></p></td></tr></tbody><tfoot><tr style="overflow-wrap:break-word;"><td  colspan="4"class="cl-25ce3e62"><p class="cl-25ce1777"><span class="cl-25cdf07d"> </span><span class="cl-25cdf07e">Source: RECOVER Northern Estuaries Performance Measure: Salinity Envelope</span></p></td></tr></tfoot></table></div></template>
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* Frequency of low (below optimum), optimum and damaging flow events were evaluated for each water year (May - April) and alternative.

* Principal Component Analysis - compare various metrics across alternatives.